Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
